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	<title>Comments on: Set Theory and Weather Prediction</title>
	<atom:link href="http://xorshammer.com/2008/08/23/set-theory-and-weather-prediction/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://xorshammer.com/2008/08/23/set-theory-and-weather-prediction/</link>
	<description>Some things in mathematical logic that I find interesting</description>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Deedlit</title>
		<link>http://xorshammer.com/2008/08/23/set-theory-and-weather-prediction/#comment-305</link>
		<dc:creator>Deedlit</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Aug 2010 11:41:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://xorshammer.wordpress.com/?p=122#comment-305</guid>
		<description>mike, you are incorrect that knowledge of f is known to the guesser.  The guesser simply picks a representative for each equivalence class; this can be done before f is even chosen.  When f is revealed (for all values except x) the equivalence class for f is known, so the guesser chooses g to be the representative from that class.

Your example with G(f,x) = 0 indicates that you don&#039;t understand the solution.  An important point to the solution is that the representative g that is chosen is the same regardless of what x is.  Otherwise we could not assert that the guesser is wrong for only finitely many x because g(x) differs from f(x) at only finitely many places.  In your example, you would have g(x) be identically zero, which obviously does not match f(x) at all but finitely many places.

Your probability argument doesn&#039;t hold because G(f,x) is not a random variable.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>mike, you are incorrect that knowledge of f is known to the guesser.  The guesser simply picks a representative for each equivalence class; this can be done before f is even chosen.  When f is revealed (for all values except x) the equivalence class for f is known, so the guesser chooses g to be the representative from that class.</p>
<p>Your example with G(f,x) = 0 indicates that you don&#8217;t understand the solution.  An important point to the solution is that the representative g that is chosen is the same regardless of what x is.  Otherwise we could not assert that the guesser is wrong for only finitely many x because g(x) differs from f(x) at only finitely many places.  In your example, you would have g(x) be identically zero, which obviously does not match f(x) at all but finitely many places.</p>
<p>Your probability argument doesn&#8217;t hold because G(f,x) is not a random variable.</p>
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		<title>By: Mike</title>
		<link>http://xorshammer.com/2008/08/23/set-theory-and-weather-prediction/#comment-290</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Apr 2010 16:39:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://xorshammer.wordpress.com/?p=122#comment-290</guid>
		<description>By choosing a representative function g from each equivalence class ahead of time, there is a (deterministic) mapping
       G(f,x): {(x&#039;,f) &#124; x&#039; =/= x}-&gt; Reals
where G(f,x) = g(x) if g is the representative function for the class containing f.

Suppose that f is white noise with a non-zero variance.  Each f(x) is random, and f(x) and f(x&#039;) are independent of one another if x&#039; =/= x.  Since G(f,x) is a deterministic mapping, and since it uses information about f everywhere except at x, G(f,x) and f(x) are independent.  By independence, the variance of the error VAR[G(f,x) - f(x)] for a given x is at least VAR[f(x)].  It follows that the probability of a correct guess (even over random x) is zero.

The article&#039;s proof seems to be based in the statement &quot;the set {x &#124; g(x) differs from f(x)} has measure 0,&quot; which is why a random selection of x helps.  However, I believe it is implicit in the proof is that f is fully known to the guesser -- it&#039;s fixed at the beginning of the problem and used to construct a &quot;nice&quot; G(f,x) that yields G(f,x) = f(x) except possibly at a finite number of points.

If the guesser didn&#039;t know f, G(f,x) couldn&#039;t be chosen so nicely.  Suppose f is non-zero except at finitely many points.  For any given f and x, choose G(f,x) = 0.  The function g with g=f except at x where we define g(x) = 0 certainly belongs to the same class as f, so we can make it the representative function for that class.  However, fix f and define g(x) = G(f,x).  Now, g=0, which means that g and f differ at infinitely many points.  The probability of guessing f(x) is now zero.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By choosing a representative function g from each equivalence class ahead of time, there is a (deterministic) mapping<br />
       G(f,x): {(x&#8217;,f) | x&#8217; =/= x}-&gt; Reals<br />
where G(f,x) = g(x) if g is the representative function for the class containing f.</p>
<p>Suppose that f is white noise with a non-zero variance.  Each f(x) is random, and f(x) and f(x&#8217;) are independent of one another if x&#8217; =/= x.  Since G(f,x) is a deterministic mapping, and since it uses information about f everywhere except at x, G(f,x) and f(x) are independent.  By independence, the variance of the error VAR[G(f,x) - f(x)] for a given x is at least VAR[f(x)].  It follows that the probability of a correct guess (even over random x) is zero.</p>
<p>The article&#8217;s proof seems to be based in the statement &#8220;the set {x | g(x) differs from f(x)} has measure 0,&#8221; which is why a random selection of x helps.  However, I believe it is implicit in the proof is that f is fully known to the guesser &#8212; it&#8217;s fixed at the beginning of the problem and used to construct a &#8220;nice&#8221; G(f,x) that yields G(f,x) = f(x) except possibly at a finite number of points.</p>
<p>If the guesser didn&#8217;t know f, G(f,x) couldn&#8217;t be chosen so nicely.  Suppose f is non-zero except at finitely many points.  For any given f and x, choose G(f,x) = 0.  The function g with g=f except at x where we define g(x) = 0 certainly belongs to the same class as f, so we can make it the representative function for that class.  However, fix f and define g(x) = G(f,x).  Now, g=0, which means that g and f differ at infinitely many points.  The probability of guessing f(x) is now zero.</p>
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		<title>By: mkoconnor</title>
		<link>http://xorshammer.com/2008/08/23/set-theory-and-weather-prediction/#comment-116</link>
		<dc:creator>mkoconnor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Oct 2008 11:27:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://xorshammer.wordpress.com/?p=122#comment-116</guid>
		<description>You&#039;re right, I changed the phrase &quot;... the axiom of choice implies that you have a strategy that will win the game with probability 1&#039;&#039; to: &quot;... the axiom of choice implies that that you  have a strategy such that, whatever $latex f$ Bob picked, you will win the game with probability 1&#039;&#039; 

Another way to linguistically slip past this subtlety might have been to say: &quot;The axiom of choice implies that you have a strategy such that, whatever Bob&#039;s distribution over the space of functions, the expected value over that distribution of the probability of you winning the game is 1.&#039;&#039;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You&#8217;re right, I changed the phrase &#8220;&#8230; the axiom of choice implies that you have a strategy that will win the game with probability 1&#8221; to: &#8220;&#8230; the axiom of choice implies that that you  have a strategy such that, whatever <img src='http://l.wordpress.com/latex.php?latex=f&#038;bg=ffffff&#038;fg=444444&#038;s=0' alt='f' title='f' class='latex' /> Bob picked, you will win the game with probability 1&#8221; </p>
<p>Another way to linguistically slip past this subtlety might have been to say: &#8220;The axiom of choice implies that you have a strategy such that, whatever Bob&#8217;s distribution over the space of functions, the expected value over that distribution of the probability of you winning the game is 1.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Kenny Easwaran</title>
		<link>http://xorshammer.com/2008/08/23/set-theory-and-weather-prediction/#comment-115</link>
		<dc:creator>Kenny Easwaran</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Oct 2008 08:14:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://xorshammer.wordpress.com/?p=122#comment-115</guid>
		<description>This is interesting - conditional on the function being f, your strategy has probability 1 of getting his function right.  However, if you don&#039;t have an initial distribution over the functions he could choose, then of course you can&#039;t assign a probability that you&#039;ll win from the beginning.  I would conjecture that for most reasonable distributions (I don&#039;t have a clear sense of how to characterize &quot;reasonable&quot; distributions on the space of functions) the event of you winning will turn out to be unmeasurable.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is interesting &#8211; conditional on the function being f, your strategy has probability 1 of getting his function right.  However, if you don&#8217;t have an initial distribution over the functions he could choose, then of course you can&#8217;t assign a probability that you&#8217;ll win from the beginning.  I would conjecture that for most reasonable distributions (I don&#8217;t have a clear sense of how to characterize &#8220;reasonable&#8221; distributions on the space of functions) the event of you winning will turn out to be unmeasurable.</p>
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		<title>By: mkoconnor</title>
		<link>http://xorshammer.com/2008/08/23/set-theory-and-weather-prediction/#comment-95</link>
		<dc:creator>mkoconnor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Sep 2008 21:41:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://xorshammer.wordpress.com/?p=122#comment-95</guid>
		<description>Why would the existence of a uniform probability distribution on $latex \lbrack 0,1\rbrack$ be inconsistent with the axiom of choice?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why would the existence of a uniform probability distribution on <img src='http://l.wordpress.com/latex.php?latex=%5Clbrack+0%2C1%5Crbrack&#038;bg=ffffff&#038;fg=444444&#038;s=0' alt='\lbrack 0,1\rbrack' title='\lbrack 0,1\rbrack' class='latex' /> be inconsistent with the axiom of choice?</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Ron Maimon</title>
		<link>http://xorshammer.com/2008/08/23/set-theory-and-weather-prediction/#comment-94</link>
		<dc:creator>Ron Maimon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Sep 2008 20:38:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://xorshammer.wordpress.com/?p=122#comment-94</guid>
		<description>But this post is ignoring that the concept of &quot;uniformly choosing x between 0 and 1&quot; is inconsistent with the axiom of choice.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>But this post is ignoring that the concept of &#8220;uniformly choosing x between 0 and 1&#8243; is inconsistent with the axiom of choice.</p>
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		<title>By: Peter Barendse</title>
		<link>http://xorshammer.com/2008/08/23/set-theory-and-weather-prediction/#comment-62</link>
		<dc:creator>Peter Barendse</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Sep 2008 21:54:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://xorshammer.wordpress.com/?p=122#comment-62</guid>
		<description>The style of explanation does a lot here.

I think it&#039;s more obvious if you assume at the outset that Bob knows all the equiv class representatives. (giving him more info will only strengthen the proof). So Bob picks places to change the representative, hoping you will stumble on one of those, but of course you don&#039;t.

On the other hand, it really seems magical if you explain it this way: 
After Bob picks f, you pick x, and Bob gives you the table, Step 4 is to &quot;pick an equivalence representative g for the table and guess f(x)=g(x)&quot;
all at once.

It could even be made into a joke!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The style of explanation does a lot here.</p>
<p>I think it&#8217;s more obvious if you assume at the outset that Bob knows all the equiv class representatives. (giving him more info will only strengthen the proof). So Bob picks places to change the representative, hoping you will stumble on one of those, but of course you don&#8217;t.</p>
<p>On the other hand, it really seems magical if you explain it this way:<br />
After Bob picks f, you pick x, and Bob gives you the table, Step 4 is to &#8220;pick an equivalence representative g for the table and guess f(x)=g(x)&#8221;<br />
all at once.</p>
<p>It could even be made into a joke!</p>
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		<title>By: Prediction and the Axiom of Choice &#60; Inductio Ex Machina</title>
		<link>http://xorshammer.com/2008/08/23/set-theory-and-weather-prediction/#comment-30</link>
		<dc:creator>Prediction and the Axiom of Choice &#60; Inductio Ex Machina</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Aug 2008 01:32:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://xorshammer.wordpress.com/?p=122#comment-30</guid>
		<description>[...] A curious paper entitled &#8220;A Peculiar Connection Between the Axiom of Choice and Predicting the Future&#8221; by Christopher Hardin and Alan Taylor caught my attention recently via the blog XOR&#8217;s Hammer. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] A curious paper entitled &#8220;A Peculiar Connection Between the Axiom of Choice and Predicting the Future&#8221; by Christopher Hardin and Alan Taylor caught my attention recently via the blog XOR&#8217;s Hammer. [...]</p>
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